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Captain Ibis

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Burton :LOL:

two rookies up the top, you gotta love that!
 
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Captain Ibis

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He seems to have developed a lot of strength in the off season, and putting his body on the line.

Yeah it's great to see the results of the talk, because I remember there was some talk during the Baz years but we were underdone... our forwards are light, so there's some things we can't do a lot about, but the players are all playing better footy this season.
 

Captain Ibis

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I just realised that our against is actually not much different from this time last year, but the difference being that we're obviously scoring more, and closing close games out. There were also two blowouts against us in rounds 4 and 5. It's gonna be a tough year with our depth in tested but Ciraldo is getting the best out of what he's got.
 

Captain Ibis

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It's cool to see Hayze Perham on the meters gained for outside backs list. We are yet to see the best he has to offer in fg, but he's doing a reliable job week in week out.
 
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It's cool to see Hayze Perham on the meters gained for outside backs list. We are yet to see the best he has to offer in fg, but he's doing a reliable job week in week out.
There's a huge ceiling I reckon he has, and yeah, we haven't seen him break out yet.

Only partly seen him in open space for a short moment, but his pace and footwork are excellent.

In the last week or two he's starting to inject himself more in attack.

No idea what we are going to do next year with Crichton now. Almost seems like a recruitment call where we jumped the gun.
 

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Yeah I mean Crichton is a quality player, and if he doesn't play fullback, yeah he'll be overpaid but the amount of clutch plays he's produced can't be a fluke.. the guy has a head on his shoulders and will provide value for us. It will be good for Kikau as well just for more of that familiarity within the squad.
 

Captain Ibis

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When Is Your Team Strongest? (Cottage's Corner)​

renderTimingPixel.png

Hey hey! Now that we're officially 1/3 of the way through the 2023 season, I wanted to share something I've spent the majority of the year working on! I got curious as to when teams were scoring their tries, and when they were conceding their tries. I've broken games down into 8 sections to see if there's anything to be taken from this.
Tries scored in 2023 by team and game time:

Team1-1011-2021-3031-4041-5051-6061-7071-80
BRI19458257
CAN43433421
CBY54234322
CRO76345924
DOL33563557
GLD36723253
MAN42421635
MEL24555322
NEW311336331
NQL45152322
PAR44565338
PEN42352526
SGI15365533
SOU43256396
SYD33363321
WAR311015542
WST10324263
Avg3.34.23.94.14.13.93.53.7


Here is the same table, but tracking when a team concedes a try instead of when they score a try.

Team1-1011-2021-3031-4041-5051-6061-7071-80
BRI61324353
CAN25346537
CBY33643775
CRO33554231
DOL39535292
GLD12277365
MAN15572335
MEL43525302
NEW70942555
NQL54556724
PAR24453544
PEN16111414
SGI34326446
SOU42272232
SYD15237324
WAR75244521
WST310543313
Avg3.34.23.94.14.13.93.53.7


My gosh, that's a lot to take in, and I know not all of you a massive nerds like me and would appreciate a translation. Here's a quick summary of the significant points for each team:

Brisbane: Despite conceding early and having a 1-6 record in the opening 10 minutes, they bounce back quickly with a 9-1 record in the second 10 minute period. They also have the most tries in the opening 10 minutes of the second half, and one of the best for the final 10 minutes of the game, though their second half defence is average at best.

Canberra: Have scored 7 tries in the first, second and third quarter. Have conceded 7 tries in the first and second quarters. Talk about consistency! Unfortunately they have a record of 3-10 for the final 20 minutes, which seems to be their downfall.

Canterbury-Bankstown: The dogs are seemingly similarly consistent over the game in attack, with no significant times of strength or weakness (slightly hotter start, slightly colder end). Their defensive efforts seem to really start coming apart towards the back end of the game though, conceding half of their tries in the final 30 minutes alone.

Cronulla: Arguably the strongest team in the opening 20 minutes, with a scoring record of 13-6 for the year so far. They match this intensity in the third quarter, with a 14-6 record in that period (better than any other team in the league).

Dolphins: The are somewhat the inverse on their finbros, with their attack starting off average (3 tries) and getting increasingly better as the half goes on. Potentially not a significant trend, but the fact that this repeats in both halves makes it worth a mention. Mostly decent in defense too, but with glaring weaknesses in the 11-20 period and 61-70 period.

Gold Coast: The Titans are without a doubt the best team in the league, conceding only 5 tries and scoring 16. It is just unfortunate that they stop playing after only 30 minutes.
Manly-Warringah: Divided into quarters, they have scored a seemingly normal 6-6-7-8 tries, but interestingly have only scored once in the opening 10 minutes of the second half (league worst). In defense, start off each half very well (conceding only once or twice) but seem to be collpasing as the period goes on.

Newcastle: Good lord what do I say about this mess. The 11-20 period sees the Newcastle with a phenomenal 11-0 record, miles better than any other team in any ten minute period. It's a shame that the 10 minutes before and after this they are 3-7 and 3-9, respectively. Have started the second half well with a 6-1 record, but have unfortunately leaked 5 tries in every 10 minute period after this and only scored once in the final 10 minutes.

North Queensland: Can start off a game decently, with a 9-9 record in the opening 20 minutes, but the fact that the final 4 10 minute periods see them scoring 2-3-2-2 tries poses the concerning question of where their points are going to be coming from, especially when they have leaked 13 tries in the 40-60 minute period (league worst).

Parramatta: To their credit, seem to be consistently even with, or slightly better than, their opponents. In addition, Parra have scored eight tries in the final 10 minutes, more than any other team.

Penrith: Defensively masterful, the only team to have conceded less than 20 tries total. Interestingly, they have only conceded 1 try in 5 of the 8 periods, which potentially suggests that they have a consistent weak spot, however it is also worth noting that the Tigers scored both of their tries in periods of the game that the Panthers previously hadn't conceded tries in.

St-George Illawarra: Slightly below average attack in the first and fourth quarter, but slightly above average in the middle 40 of the game. Seemingly has no relationship with their defense, which sees them conceding almost twice as many tries in the second half of the game.

South Sydney: This is a team that knows how to finish off a game of league, scoring 9 tries in the 61-70 period and a combined total of 17 for the final 20 - far and away the best in the league for this period. Quite consistent in defense too, having often only leaked 2 tries for each 10 minute period. Unfortunately this record is tarnished at the back end of the first half, leaking 7 tries (nearly 1/3 of their total conceded tries) in just that ten minute period.

Sydney: A lot of these ten minute periods have them scoring exactly 3 tries, but notably a) they double this in the ten minutes before half time, and b) they half this in the final 20 minutes of the game. As for their defence, they seem to be finding themselves on the back foot early in the second half, leaking 1/4 of their tries in the 41-50 minute period.

Warriors: What an interesting trend we have here. One of the worst teams in the opening 20 minute period, going down 4-12, a record that only one team could supercede (we'll get to them in a second). However, they bounce back in the next 10 minutes after with an astonishing 10-2 record. From here, things seem to stabilise, but in their favour, with the conceded tries dropping off down to a 1 by the end of the game. The tries scored seem to taper off towards the end fo the game too, but are still either matching or outscoring in each ten minute period in the second half. Potentially reflective of their game control.

Wests: Oh gosh, oh Wests, what to say. The 11-20 minute period has seen a mind-boggling 0-10 record, far worse than any other ten minute showing. This isn't helped by the 1-3 record in the opening 10, or the 5-9 record in the 20 minutes before half time. Interestingly, Wests seem to turn the tides in the second half, going 6-6 in the first 20 and 9-4 in the final 20 minutes, but unfortunately for them it often seems to be too little too late!
I know this was a pretty long one, hopefully you find it as interesting as I did! If you notice any other interesting trends that I haven't pointed out please do mention them too :) I intend to make a follow-up post on this after rounds 18 and 27 as well.
That's enough from me, until next time my friends!!!

https://www.reddit.com/r/nrl/comments/134cqzs
 
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I feel that somewhere in those stats, theres an amazing graph just waiting to come out.

Very interesting indeed, but doesn't take into account officiating issues.
 

Captain Ibis

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Our finishes are a work in progress, but still much improved. Even though our guys are fitter and more mentally fit now, they need to get a good season into them but this team will peak hopefully next year, maybe the year after, but I'm tipping next year seeing how much the individuals have progressed so far under coach Cam, I mean given our run of bad luck, previous Dogs teams would be getting lapped week in week out!
 
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Our finishes are a work in progress, but still much improved. Even though our guys are fitter and more mentally fit now, they need to get a good season into them but this team will peak hopefully next year, maybe the year after, but I'm tipping next year seeing how much the individuals have progressed so far under coach Cam, I mean given our run of bad luck, previous Dogs teams would be getting lapped week in week out!
We are finally playing full games rather than shutting up shop (or getting gassed) early. Tis a welcome change.
 

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The more time they play together, and the less injuries, the better we will be in that final 20, but we've held onto a couple of wins at least which is really positive early in the season, and we should have another one in that Warriors game.
 

Captain Ibis

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When the team is not going great, it's awesome to see individuals shining, particularly young players. Preston is a shining light on what has been a mixed season thus far!

FB_IMG_1684395053664.jpg
 
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